Although it will attract much interest, I don't expect that it will be a much of a contest: Tony Blair will continue to be Prime Minister until he steps down voluntarily.

Last November, US military forces, backed by British soldiers from the Black Watch, launched their biggest ever assault on the city of Falluja, Operation Phantom Fury.

Over the last two weeks, Ali Fadhil, an Iraqi doctor turned film-maker for Guardianfilms, has succeeded in making it into the city and the surrounding refugee camps. He discovered people had been shot in their beds, rabid dogs were feeding on corpses, and there was little to no water, electricity or sewage. A city of over 300,000 people had been destroyed and its inhabitants were homeless.

With just two weeks until the Iraqi elections, not a single voter in Falluja has received a ballot paper. Far from stabilising the region in preparation for the election, it seems the US military's decision to use the Iraqi National Guard against this Sunni city has fanned the flames of civil war in the entire country.

Following on from the revelations about James Baker and his role in Iraqi debt recovery, we find out where the cash is going. The Iraqi people have been oppressed for decades and have just suffered an invasion. Should they still be paying big corporations damages for Saddam's invasion?

I saw the story on BBC TV here in the UK, it's also on CNN among other places.

It strikes me that this could be a real vote winner for George Bush and could even swing the election for him. Why? The emotive images. The BBC correspondent mentioned that one grave contained only children and women, some pregnant.

"...often it is compelling, simply because its position-taking is so naked, so unrelated to proven truths, so coarse and, above all, so lacking in logical rigour that it thrills you with amused outrage, like playing Monopoly with someone who eats the money."

From today's Guardian (UK paper):

Fox News apologises for Kerry fabrication

What about the rest of it?

Tony Blair has been under pressure to step down since last summer, when it became apparent that there were no WMD in Iraq after all. His first problem was that, while struggling to produce convincing evidence for the war doubters within his own party, he decided to put his personal reputation on the line with the plea "Trust me."

It is important to understand that the British government's justification for the war was entirely based on WMD. Nothing else would have held any legal weight whatsoever. In fact, even if everything they claimed had been true, it is questionable whether the invasion was actually legal under British law. This is why the government is still refusing to publish the legal advice they received. Make no mistake - Blair is living on borrowed time.

Firstly, like the majority of the world's population, I believe that removing George W Bush will make the world a better and safer place to live for everyone. I dread to think what may happen during a second Bush/Cheney term, or to what extent their poisons of fear and divisiveness will continue to creep into British political life.

Secondly I'm angry - bitterly, furiously angry - at Tony Blair. It's difficult to comprehend that the man who promised us openness, equality of opportunity and social justice could have buddied up with the Bush administration over Iraq.

I can't quite believe that the man I voted for - twice - is the same person who has committed these crimes of deception and aggression, and now appears on television grinning and mocking the country. What makes it worse is that this is the Labour Party, the party of the people. There is no electoral means for the British people to remove Blair from power next year without handing the country back to the Conservatives - and nobody wants that.

So naturally, if the American people choose to get rid of Bush - it will be a small mercy for those of who are stuck with Blair. There might even be enough Iraq condemnations from a Kerry administration to make Blair's position untenable. He may yet stand aside and let his popular chancellor, Gordon Brown, fight the next election.

But is there still time for it happen the other way around - could Blair topple before November? Just possibly...

(More later)